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Pupule
USA
4551 Posts |
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da_joka
Lokahi
361 Posts |
 Posted - 08/13/2007 : 10:57:22 AM
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| At least statistics is on da side of da Big Island folks eh? No hurricane since 1871! |
If can, can. If no can, no can. |
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Lawrence
Ha`aha`a
USA
1597 Posts |
Posted - 08/13/2007 : 12:19:47 PM
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quote:
At least statistics is on da side of da Big Island folks eh? No hurricane since 1871!
Unfortunately, that is not the way the statistics work, just like earthquakes, the longer since the last one the more likely to be hit.
Wishing good luck for all in Hawaii in any case.
I have a friend joining a Cruise, probably in Hilo yesterday, at the very least he will probably experience some pretty bad weather in a couple of days.
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Mahope Kākou...
...El Lorenzo de Ondas Sonoras |
Edited by - Lawrence on 08/13/2007 12:22:49 PM |
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cpatch
Ahonui
USA
2187 Posts |
Posted - 08/13/2007 : 12:44:11 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Lawrence
quote:
At least statistics is on da side of da Big Island folks eh? No hurricane since 1871!
Unfortunately, that is not the way the statistics work, just like earthquakes, the longer since the last one the more likely to be hit.
The odds of a hurricane hitting a particular area have nothing to do with whether one hit the previous year (just like the odds of a coin toss returning heads is the same regardless of the outcome of the previous flip). The odds of an earthquake increase the longer an area has gone without one due to the nature of earthquakes. |
Craig
My goal is to be able to play as well as people think I can. |
Edited by - cpatch on 08/13/2007 12:46:59 PM |
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Lawrence
Ha`aha`a
USA
1597 Posts |
Posted - 08/13/2007 : 3:13:11 PM
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quote:
The odds of a hurricane hitting a particular area have nothing to do with whether one hit the previous year (just like the odds of a coin toss returning heads is the same regardless of the outcome of the previous flip).
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The coin is a good example: Yes, the odds in any particular year are relatively constant, but we are talking about a sequence here. Say that not getting a hurricane is "heads" and that the odds each year are 50-50 (like the coin). What are the odds of NOT GETTING a hurricane for ten years in a row? (hint: same as not getting tails for ten tosses in a row = 1/(2^10) = 1 in 1024 or about .1 percent ). Odds of sequences are different than the odds of a single event. Of course the mathematical probability of getting tails remains the same at 50% but in order to conform to the statistical average over time the event is overdue. (unless the average is wrong)
Not quite like the earthquake (no stress buildup) but the basic point is that a long run of "heads" means that the event outcomes have to eventually swing the other way to bring the long term statistics in line. Unless, of course the long term probability is changing (due to global warming or whatever).
Probably (pun intended) should have said "like winning at the same slot machine XX times in a row" instead of "just like earthquakes".
Nothing is just like earthquakes... EXCEPT EARTHQUAKES
(only more so!) 
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Mahope Kākou...
...El Lorenzo de Ondas Sonoras |
Edited by - Lawrence on 08/14/2007 07:23:13 AM |
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wcerto
Ahonui
USA
5052 Posts |
Posted - 08/13/2007 : 4:38:36 PM
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| Lawrence -- gonna draw one OC curve? |
Me ke aloha
Malama pono,
Wanda |
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hawaiianmusiclover06
`Olu`olu
USA
562 Posts |
Posted - 08/13/2007 : 8:13:54 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Lawrence
quote:
At least statistics is on da side of da Big Island folks eh? No hurricane since 1871!
Unfortunately, that is not the way the statistics work, just like earthquakes, the longer since the last one the more likely to be hit.
Wishing good luck for all in Hawaii in any case.
I have a friend joining a Cruise, probably in Hilo yesterday, at the very least he will probably experience some pretty bad weather in a couple of days.
I am keeping an eye out for Hurricane Flossie. It is bound to hit O'ahu on Tuesday. I live on O'ahu. |
Aloha Kakou, maluhia a me aloha mau loa (Hello everyone, peace and love forever) |
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da_joka
Lokahi
361 Posts |
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wcerto
Ahonui
USA
5052 Posts |
Posted - 08/14/2007 : 12:00:47 AM
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| Looks like Pele and Kamapua`a are getting bored. Ho`omakaukau. |
Me ke aloha
Malama pono,
Wanda |
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alika207
Ha`aha`a
USA
1260 Posts |
Posted - 08/14/2007 : 12:04:48 AM
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Just wanted to send my mana'o out to everybody from Hawai'i Nei who may be on this board. Hope you stay safe during the hurricane.
Me ke aloha pumehana,
'Alika |
He kehau ho'oma'ema'e ke aloha.
'Alika / Polinahe |
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Konabob
`Olu`olu
USA
928 Posts |
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Momi
Lokahi
402 Posts |
Posted - 08/14/2007 : 07:54:35 AM
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KB, I wonder if you saw an early Perseid meteor. These guys are supposed to be much more frequent after midnight, and much much more frequent after 2 a.m. The heaviest concentration of meteors was supposed to occur on Sunday night.
We're thinking good thoughts for all the Moku o Keawe folks. Hang in there. |
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Konabob
`Olu`olu
USA
928 Posts |
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Konabob
`Olu`olu
USA
928 Posts |
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wcerto
Ahonui
USA
5052 Posts |
Posted - 08/14/2007 : 11:28:07 AM
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My Granpa had a cow named Flossie. A Guernsey. Does that make me a paniolo?
Looks like it might stay away far enough that no bad stuff will happen, but please remember all you Big Island folks....take care...be prepared. We are keeping you in our thoughts. |
Me ke aloha
Malama pono,
Wanda |
Edited by - wcerto on 08/14/2007 11:29:18 AM |
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